TSMC’s $55B Bet: Navigating the AI Bubble with Caution and Confidence

TSMC’s CEO is ‘very nervous’ about an AI bubble — even as the foundry spends more on 2026 CapEx than Intel and Samsung combined in 2025.

TSMC reported $122.42 billion in revenue for 2025, with 58% ($71 billion) from AI and HPC processors. CEO C.C. Wei called the $52-$56 billion 2026 CapEx 'a disaster for TSMC for sure' if mismanaged, citing the AI bubble risk.

Wei noted:

If we did not do it carefully, that would be a disaster for TSMC for sure.

TSMC's 3nm process accounted for 24% of wafer revenue, with 5nm at 36% and 7nm at 14%.

Arizona Fab 21 phase 2 tooling begins in 2026, with first products by late 2027; phase 4 permits secured. Intel Foundry's 18A process is 'not a near-term threat' due to 2-3 year design cycles and porting complexities.

TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue hit $33.73 billion (up 20.5% YoY), with a 62.3% gross margin.