Chicago Study Links Eviction Rates to 2.66 More Shootings Per 1% Increase in Displacement

In Chicago’s poorest neighborhoods, evictions may be fueling gun violence more than poverty alone—revealing a hidden driver of urban firearm deaths.

A 2023 study of five major U.S. cities found 55% of shootings occurred in 9% of census tracts, with socioeconomic factors like poverty and unemployment strongly correlated to firearm violence.

However, a new University of Chicago study identified a specific modifiable factor: evictions. Researchers found that every 1% increase in eviction rate in a census tract was associated with 2.66 more shootings in Chicago.

This link is tied to the erosion of collective efficacy—a community’s shared belief in working together to maintain safety and order. Evictions disrupt social networks, weakening the bonds that help neighborhoods resist violence despite structural disadvantages. Thomas Statchen said:

"Evictions really break up communities, both for the people who are forced to move and for people who are losing their neighbors."

Elizabeth Tung added that while poverty remains the root cause, some communities develop resilient bonds to withstand structural challenges:

"The root cause is still poverty, and it's by force of nature that some communities are able to form such strong, resilient bonds to withstand structural disadvantages..."

The study utilized Healthy Chicago Survey data, analyzing metrics on collective efficacy, health access, and safety. Between 2007 and 2016, 7.6 million people annually faced eviction threats, with Black women disproportionately impacted.

Evictions correlate with maternal mortality, low voter turnout, and mental health struggles, underscoring their broader societal costs.

Policy recommendations include rent caps and public housing improvements to reduce displacement. The study emphasizes that eviction rates are a modifiable factor, distinct from fixed socioeconomic conditions.

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