Bitcoin's Supply Crossroads: Miners, ETFs, and the $98K STH Threshold

Bitcoin’s price trajectory now hinges on a fragile balance between miner profitability, ETF outflows, and a $98,300 cost-basis threshold that could trigger renewed distribution. The $93,000–$110,000 band identified by Glassnode as an "overhead supply" zone remains a critical focal point, with Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis currently near $98,300.

Hashrate Index data reveals the six-month hashprice forward curve at $33.25/PH/s/day, undercutting the $39.50 breakeven threshold for many miners. Meanwhile, SoSoValue reports $1.3 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs during the first full trading week of 2026.

Exchange dynamics show mixed signals: Binance and aggregate flows have shifted into buy-dominant regimes, while Coinbase sell pressure has eased. This divergence highlights the complexity of interpreting on-chain behavior in a market where institutional and retail forces often move in opposing directions.

Look, the $98,300 STH threshold isn’t just a number—it’s a psychological and economic fulcrum. If Bitcoin breaches this level meaningfully, it could force a wave of selling from holders who bought near that price point. That’s not a prediction, just a mathematical reality of how on-chain metrics interact with market psychology.

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⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.