Bitcoin's Institutional Paradox: Bear Market Label Coexists with Undervaluation Belief
Institutions call it a bear market yet pile into Bitcoin—how do they reconcile the contradiction? A Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey reveals 25% of institutions label crypto a bear market, while 70% believe Bitcoin is undervalued.
This duality reflects a strategic recalibration: 70% of institutions reported holding or increasing BTC exposure since October 2025, prioritizing Bitcoin over smaller tokens as its dominance rose from 58% to 59% in Q4 2025.
David Duong of Coinbase Institutional explains the logic: "Institutions assess Bitcoin’s value via adoption, scarcity, and regulatory clarity, not short-term price."
This mindset has driven a shift from leveraged perpetuals to options and basis trades, with Bitcoin options open interest surpassing perpetual futures. The 25-delta put-call skew in positive territory signals risk-defined long positions, while entity-adjusted NUPL shifted from Belief to Anxiety in Q4 2025.
Macroeconomic tailwinds are central to this calculus. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 5.3% real GDP growth for Q4 2025, alongside two Fed rate cuts totaling 50 bps. Duong emphasizes Bitcoin’s valuation is tied to macro liquidity: "The halving’s economic impact is specious when controlling for macro factors." This contrasts with altcoins, which face deleveraging and volatility, as Bitcoin’s structural role as a store of value diverges from speculative tokens.
Look, the institutional playbook isn’t about timing crypto cycles—it’s about hedging against macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s 1-year holding period distribution drop of 2% suggests cautious accumulation, not panic. If you’re watching the Fed’s next moves, Bitcoin’s options market is the canary in the coal mine.
⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
