Bitcoin's Absorption Signal: Inevitable Price Surge as Institutions Outbid Supply 2-to-1

Bitcoin may be stalling in the short term, but institutional buyers are absorbing new supply at a 2-to-1 ratio, creating structural conditions for a forced repricing of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) opened 2026 with a $95,000 peak and $90,000 retest, while the Fear & Greed Index remained at 28 (Fear zone).

Despite this, spot ETFs showed net inflows of 5,150 BTC as of January 7. A single strategy purchased 1,283 BTC, raising total holdings to 673,783 BTC. Institutional absorption of 6,433 BTC outpaced miner issuance of 3,137.5 BTC, achieving a 105% absorption ratio.

Corporate treasuries now hold 1,094,426 BTC (5.2% of supply) as of early 2026. This long-duration accumulation contrasts with the 2025 absorption of 696,851 BTC (4.2x issuance), which preceded a 35% BTC price rise. The 2024 halving reduced issuance to 3.125 BTC per block, tightening supply dynamics.

Price projections from major firms show convergence: VanEck projects $130k (bear) to $53.4M (bull) by 2050; Bitwise forecasts $1.3M BTC by 2035 (28.3% CAGR); ARK Invest scenarios range from $300k (bear) to $1.5M (bull) by 2030.

Standard Chartered and Bernstein both target $150k for 2026, with Bernstein projecting a $200k peak in 2027.

Look, the math here is clear—when demand outpaces issuance by this margin, price discovery becomes inevitable. The question isn't if, but when the market adjusts.

⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.