Bitcoin Surpasses $94,000 Amid Structural Shifts in Derivatives and On-Chain Flows

Bitcoin’s $94,000 surge masks a deeper structural shift: derivatives demand, on-chain consolidation, and low leverage are creating a self-reinforcing rally. The $1.2 billion in ETF inflows during the first two trading days of 2026 coincided with a positive turn in options call skew on Jan. 1—the first since October.

This shift, measured by 25-delta risk reversals, reflects growing demand for upside exposure as institutional buyers absorb supply without immediate profit-taking.

On-chain data reveals a top-heavy supply distribution dropping from 67% to 47% between Nov. 23 and Jan. 3, while realized profit-taking plummeted from 30,721 BTC to 3,596 BTC. This suggests concentrated holders are redistributing to buyers willing to hold long-term.

Meanwhile, crypto-native leverage fell from 5.2% to 4.8%, and global leverage dropped from 7.2% to 6.6% in the week ending Jan. 5, reducing the risk of forced liquidations.

Checkonchain noted the market’s rebalancing dynamic: Bitcoin holders are shifting from speculative trading to accumulation, supported by a $361 million short liquidation event over 24 hours.

Checkonchain said:

"The market wasn't simply rising: it was rebalancing, with concentrated holders distributing to buyers willing to absorb supply without immediately flipping for profit."

Look, the interplay of positive call skew and reduced profit-taking isn’t just a technical curiosity—it’s a signal that institutional buyers are locking in gains while retail demand remains muted. This creates a feedback loop where lower leverage reduces volatility, making Bitcoin more attractive to long-term holders. The result? A rally that’s less about hype and more about structural alignment.

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